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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still