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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd