A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
